‘We cannot run away from it’

Rising sea levels, more storms create risk for tourism operators

Collectively, Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia have nearly 30,000 kilometres of ocean-facing coastline.

But as the climate changes and sea levels rise, the familiar contours of our provinces are set to change — and with that, the industries the coastline supports.

Tourism is one such industry and it’s heavily predicated on access to the coast.

“That’s also where, therefore, most of the tourism infrastructure exists,” says Lorn Sheehan, professor of strategy at Dalhousie University’s Rowe School of Business.

“The waterfront, which is a key means to interact with and enjoy coastal destinations, is extremely vulnerable to climate change, to sea level rise, to storm surges, to extreme weather events, etc.”

Important industry

Tourism might not be top of mind when one thinks about climate change, but the industry plays an important role on the East Coast.

In 2019, pre-pandemic, industry sources pegged overall tourism spending in Atlantic Canada at $7.3 billion. Sheehan says anything that impacts tourism will have an impact on all economic scales.

“It’s a means of employment. Many of the businesses in tourism tend to be smaller businesses, so it is a great industry for family businesses or for entrepreneurs,” he says.

“And at the same time, of course, we see some very large businesses that are in or related to the tourism industry, like the airline industry, cruise lines, hotel chains, resort chains.”

Big picture

No one really knows the full impacts of climate change or how it will impact us in five, 10 or more years.

Pelin Kinay, a post-doctoral fellow with the University

of Prince Edward Island’s Climate Smart Lab, tries to incorporate part of that big picture as we approach climate tipping points.

“You can stop your carbon footprint. You can reduce your emissions. That's doable, but you can’t stop the ocean currents from changing …”

One of Kinay’s concerns is that, as the climate changes, we’re increasingly selling people on a version of Atlantic Canada that no longer exists. Her cousins visited last fall, for example, eager to see the Island’s shores. Unfortunately, the dates coincided with the aftermath of hurricane Fiona.

“Literally, they couldn’t do anything. We only stayed downtown and ate in the restaurants.”

Kinay’s point isn’t trivial. Models predict storms like Fiona will happen more often, and in the past six years, between Dorian and Fiona, there have been two once-in-a-generation storms. Kinay says it’s past time to keep hoping for best-case scenarios and treating these storms as one-offs.

Another factor, Kinay adds, is as temperatures change, Atlantic Canada’s other critical tourism season will also be affected.

Atlantic Canada’s winter season is advertised endlessly. If you’ve spent any time on Youtube, the algorithm has served images of cross-country skiing, snowmobile trails and pond hockey — all advertising an Atlantic Canadian winter that may no longer exist.

“If we talk about winter tourism, the outlook is very, very bad because you’re going to be relying on only snow-making businesses and we won’t have natural snow,” says Kinay.

“Our winter seasons are going to shrink and get shorter and shorter. And the risk for tourism facilities will be increased insurance costs, loss of insurability and business interruption costs.”

Need to know

To prepare for and mitigate the impacts climate change will have on our coasts, we need to know exactly what that impact looks like.

That’s a tougher problem, one University of New Brunswick researcher Shabnam Jabari knows very well. She’s an assistant professor in the department of geodesy and geomatics engineering. Essentially, that’s the complex work of building accurate 3D models of the Earth and integrating them with satellite, survey and other data to create maps accurate enough to tell, for example, what will happen to an area if water rises, as well as individual buildings in that area.

One of Jabari’s concerns is that coastal mapping has been piecemeal. Jabari points out this isn’t just an academic exercise. People are buying, living on and building on land that is going to be underwater.

What to do?

“Short-term, battening down the hatches and minimizing damage and moving people from vulnerable areas and other assets that are movable,” says Sheehan.

“But then, the other stuff is more long-term. Where do you choose to allow building and construction to occur and where do you say ‘No, this is an area that’s too vulnerable?’”

Problem never solved?

So, how are we going to protect tourism in Atlantic Canada from climate change?

It’s complicated.

The first takeaway from the experts is that, on some level, we will not protect tourism in Atlantic Canada as it exists now. The climate will change to some degree, and as a result, what’s available to tourists will change.

Secondly, we must start taking short-term precautions — not just to protect natural and artificial infrastructure, but to make sure guests in the region are fully informed and are being sold an experience that matches reality.

Lastly, we need to be ready to change again as needed. Our tourism industry, and wider livelihoods, depend on an impossibly complex system, meaning we can never fully predict what will happen.