Rising airline emissions could trigger global caps as early as 2024: trade group

Rising airline traffic is expected to trigger global emissions-related requirements for some carriers as early as next year, according to a top airline trade group, even as debate broadens on the effectiveness of that approach.

A United Nations-led scheme seeks to cap emissions from international flights at 85 per cent of 2019 levels under the first phase of its Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) beginning next year. That threshold is expected to be crossed sometime in 2024 based on current traffic recovery, trade group IATA told Reuters.

Carriers in the first phase could purchase offsets as early as that year, with international travel expected to rebound to near 2019 levels.

Combating aviation pollution is key for the fight against climate change as the industry generates roughly three per cent of global emissions. As traffic rebounds from a COVID-19 pandemicinduced slump, some travellers are reviving “flight shaming” pressure to seek lower carbon alternatives.

With technologies like electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft still unproven, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in short supply and exorbitantly costly, airlines are buying credits in pollution-lowering projects like planting trees to offset their emissions. However, while offsets cost less than SAF, critics say they do not lower actual airline emissions.

CARBON OFFSETS

Although CORSIA’S first phase is voluntary, airlines from participating countries follow it. CORSIA becomes mandatory in 2027.

IATA’S expectations had not previously been public.

Airlines currently buy carbon credits voluntarily. Under CORSIA, carriers from more than 100 participating countries would have to offset rising emissions above the baseline of 85 per cent of 2019 levels.

Offsetting amounts, which depend on traffic, are not yet clear. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said requirements during CORSIA’S first phase will only be calculated in 2026, though IATA said airlines can start buying credits earlier.