Jays not looking like a contender

Teeter-totter first half disappointing for Toronto

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had the single greatest offensive season in Blue Jays history one year ago. It all but carried the Jays to within one game of the playoffs.

Now, with an additional team added to the post-season, the Jays have basically assured a wild-card playoff spot and Guerrero has the entire second half of a season to find some of what he left behind a year ago.

In one spectacular season for the ages, Guerrero finished first in OPS, tied for first in home runs, first in on-base percentage, first in slugging, second in batting average. In any other year he would have been the MVP but Shohei Ohtani is not any other player.

There is no MVP race right now for Guerrero, as he is having a decent, respectable major league season. There is a wide difference between being decent and being exceptional.

As the Blue Jays headed to Game 81 in Oakland on Monday night, Guerrero ranked 11th in OPS in the American League, seventh in home runs, 21st in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging and 30th in batting average.

And the weird part of Guerrero’s statistical imbalance, the Blue Jays are just about the best offensive team in the AL. They’re second in runs scored, behind the New York Yankees. They’re third in home runs. They’re first in OPS.

All this happening with Guerrero being nowhere near the impossible standards he set for himself last summer, and with Bo Bichette struggling when compared with last year’s numbers, and slugger Teoscar Hernandez having missed 24 games to date. This is the Blue Jays stock market of sluggers: the numbers have dropped, the market is down and the explanations for the forever smiling trio are really unexplainable.

That is just part of the strange story of the halfseason nowhere close to what the Blue Jays envisioned for themselves.

They didn’t just establish themselves as a contender in the AL. That was the clear viewpoint throughout the sport. The gambling sites that are everywhere now had them listed as one of the favourites not just to win the AL East but possibly the World Series. Management assumed 90-plus wins. It was not an unreasonable assumption.

But almost at no time this season have the Jays looked the part of a contender. Unless Alek Manoah was pitching. Or maybe on a day when Kevin Gausman had it working. Contenders have a certain look about them. There’s a feel to it. It’s not just about how many games you win, but how you win them, and when you win them.

Something seems a little off with these Blue Jays and it’s not just a beaten-up pitching staff and odd choices to fill in assignments when necessary. The parts don’t seem to connect. In June, the Blue Jays scored an impressive five runs a game and gave up an unimpressive five runs a game.

They just lost a series to the Tampa Bay Rays, who scored 24 runs in the final three games. Tampa is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. They have had 24 games scoring two runs or fewer this season.

They’ve been shut out four times. They’ve had six games scoring just a run.

Individually, there is a lot to like about these Jays. Manoah is an all-star. Alejandro Kirk is putting up rather ridiculous numbers — he should be an all-star. So should closer Jordan Romano. And the Jays have been fortunate to have good health and strong play from George Springer and even more fortunate to have a half-season of surprising strength from Santiago Espinal.

The imbalance of this halfseason is somewhat unexplainable. Manoah has been great, Gausman has been solid and fill-in starter Ross Stripling has performed beyond expectations.