Support dropping for Ford in Ontario, says poll

If the next Ontario election were to be held today, Fords’ Progressive Conservatives would attract 35 per cent of decided voters, five points ahead of Stephen Del Duca’s Liberals (30 per cent) and 10 points above Andrea Horwath’s NDP (25 per cent), according to a new Legerpostmedia poll. The provincial Green Party is currently polling at five per cent.

Those numbers are likely reassuring for both the PCS and the Liberals, but are much more concerning for the NDP leader, says Leger Executive Vice-president Andrew Enns.

Horwath is currently polling much lower than the 33.6 per cent of support gathered during the 2018 election and the party is currently in a position to lose its standing as the official opposition.

“I suspect that who will look at this poll and feel a little bit discomforted is going to be Andrea Horvath and the NDP,” Enns said in an interview. “What’s going on suddenly is that the Liberals have come from what was a really significant drubbing in 2018 no now looking like they’re challenging for government and certainly looks like they’re going to displace the NDP as the alternative to Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives,” he added.

Ford’s party is also polling much lower than the support it gathered during last election (40.5 per cent), but the fact that it remains in the lead after a difficult pandemic and a series of controversial decisions during the third wave on which the premier was forced to reverse course is likely a relief to the party, Enns said.

“Basically, the Progressive Conservatives in government kind of held their own,” Enns said.

But one potentially dark cloud hanging over Ford is his approval rating. According to the poll, 38 per cent have a favourable impression of him whereas 54 per cent of Ontarians view him in an unfavourable light.

That’s a significant fall from the 50 per cent approval rate Leger surveyed in May. It’s also a much higher current unfavourability rate than Horwath (41 per cent) or Del Duca (32 per cent), who are viewed favourably by 37 per cent and 25 per cent of Ontarians respectively.

“I don’t think that the folks around Doug Ford would be thrilled with this number,” Enns said. “But I do think that to some degree that’s somewhat the by-product of the nature of Doug Ford and how he can be a bit of a polarizing figure.”

“So I think the party would like to see that number well under 50 per cent. And I think they’ll want to work at trying to do that,” he added.