Jays need to take advantage of home return to make move in AL East

It’s pretty simple. If the once again Toronto Blue Jays want to back up the confidence of management, they will need to start making some headway against their divisional rivals.

So far Toronto has an uninspiring 21-24 record against the American League East and if you drill down deeper to eliminate Baltimore, the team with the second-fewest wins in baseball, the mark is just 15-21, including 4-7 against Boston. The Red Sox just showed off their booming bats in a pair of easy wins at Buffalo and Toronto will have to visit Fenway Park for four games following this weekend’s series at the New York Mets, with three more games to follow in a couple of weeks at Rogers Centre.

September will see a heavy dose of games against the Yankees and Rays. An optimist would point out the Jays actually have a positive run differential against both Boston and New York, along with a 6-6 record against the Yankees. A pessimist would point to Tampa’s history of success against the Jays and that five of Ross Stripling’s losses have come against the cream of the AL East crop, as have four of five of Robbie Ray’s defeats.

Manager Charlie Montoyo has consistently said the pitching needs to get better in order for some wins to be strung together and that could come both from internally and perhaps from outside, with the July 30 trade deadline fast approaching.

In any event, coming back to Toronto should be helpful. Despite the best efforts by everyone involved, the homefield advantage was limited — particularly against iconic franchises New York and Boston — in both Dunedin and Buffalo. The Jays went just 10-11 in Dunedin and 12-11 at Sahlen Field for a .500 “home record.” That’s more akin to the home mark of a mediocre-poor Blue Jays team historically. Jays teams with more quality, like this one, have excelled at Rogers Centre. The 2014 and 2016 groups each were nine games over .500 at Rogers Centre and the 2015 powerhouse was 25 games over .500 there.

With no games here since September of 2019, tickets have been moving fast for the July 30 return and beyond. So you can bet it will be a raucous environment at the Dome for the rest of the summer, assuming the Jays stay in the race for another post-season berth. Especially for the 10 remaining games hosting the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays.