Poilievre in tough in Atlantic region

The last Conservative federal government left many Atlantic Canadians disgruntled and some fear the party’s new leader may be worse

Every evening, Cheryl spends several hours scouring the political news of the day.

She then goes about factchecking what Canadian politicians are saying and makes social media posts about some of the glaring differences she finds.

The Nova Scotia woman makes no bones about being on the left when it comes to her political leanings. Because she happens to hold a politically sensitive job, she doesn’t use her surname for her Twitter feed (@mini_bubbly).

Because she is afraid of repercussions from her employer because of her social media work, Saltwire Network has also agreed to withhold her full name.

Her main target of late has been newly minted Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre. She said fact-checking what he says has been keeping her quite busy lately.

In fact, the pinned Tweet at the top of her Twitter feed is an ever-growing thread of what she’s dug up on Poilievre. To say she doesn’t like or trust Poilievre would be an understatement.

“He just doesn’t have any good information for anybody … He flip flops a lot,” said Cheryl in a phone interview with Saltwire Network. “Most of the information he comes up with is like something he just pulls out of his a** and says ‘here, maybe this will work.’

“He doesn’t seem to have any background to anything. He’s just throwing things out there to see what will stick.”

While it’s clear Cheryl doesn’t think Poilievre would be good for Canada should he and the Conservatives ever form a federal government, she has particular concerns for what that might mean for Atlantic Canada.

She calls Poilievre “a smarter version of (former U.S. President Donald) Trump” and Stephen Harper’s attack dog, referring to the last Conservative prime minister, whose government — in which Poilievre served cabinet roles — left a sour taste in the mouths of many Atlantic Canadians.

“I think he would treat us the same way Harper did, by screwing us over — saying he would help us,” said Cheryl. “The only time the Atlantic provinces have gotten big help from a federal government was when a Liberal government was in charge.”

One of the items on her Twitter feed is a video clip of Poilievre sayig municipalities with less than 500,000 people should get federal housing funding. Cheryl said that would eliminate all of Atlantic Canada, not to mention other parts of Canada, from that federal benefit.

Cheryl emphasized Poilievre isn’t the only politician she fact-checks and criticizes, but said Poilievre concerns her.

“I have also fact-checked Trudeau, but he doesn’t seem to twist stuff,” she said. “He usually references government pages and is very careful with his wording, but he is the prime minister.

“Poilievre is rarely truthful and that’s a problem. If he’s like that now, what will he be like if people put him in charge?”

Cheryl isn’t trying to tell people what to think or how to vote when the time comes, but encouraged people to get informed before forming an opinion.

“If you really want to know what this guy is all about, fact check him,” she said of Poilievre. “Every time he posts a video, makes a statement about the Liberals or NDP or anybody else inside or outside of the party, fact check what he’s saying. Research it for yourself and you will see that almost everything he’s saying has partial truths, misinformation, disinformation or the facts are twisted.”

MATTER OF TRUST

Mary Shortall of St. John’s ran unsuccessfully for the New Democratic Party in the last federal election.

She has been closely watching Poilievre’s rise from Harper’s cabinet to the Conservative leadership and she too has concerns, especially for Atlantic Canada should he ever wield power.

From the people she has spoken with about him and from his track record so far, she doesn’t think Poilievre has much solid support in the region.

“I think people are scared of him,” said Shortall, who is president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour. “A lot of workers ended up faring really awfully when he was a minister in Stephen Harper’s government and I think people feel he is even a little more emboldened than Stephen Harper … The Conservatives have never been seen as someone who’s fighting for the average working people … Their mantra and their ideology is more based on cutting the things that working people benefit from.”

She noted particularly how Poilievre voted against increasing federal pensions and against changes made to Employment Insurance during the pandemic, both important social safety nets for Atlantic Canada’s aging population and prominence of seasonal workers.

Shortall is worried about how some right-wing parties try to make workers feel like they’re on the same side, when, in fact, she said, it’s unlikely they’ll keep their promises once in power.

“He would like to think that people feel he’s on their side, but that doesn’t ring through … people were very nervous about him and that kind of politics,” she said of what she heard from people on the campaign trail and from those she meets through her work.

Shortall hopes Poilievre doesn’t make gains purely on any anti-liberal sentiments that might be out there. She wants people to look into what he and the Conservative party stand for.

“I think we need to be talking about these issues more and more … we have to make sure people understand, if they don’t already, that these promises are really false,” she said, alluding to Poilievre’s plans for important issues such as the economy and climate change.

THE CHANGE THAT’S NEEDED

Devin Drover, a lawyer in St. John’s, doesn’t buy the negative hype about Poilievre.

He was the Atlantic coordinator for the Poilievre leadership campaign, travelling with Poilievre’s entourage through all four Atlantic provinces during his recent bid to become leader.

“As someone who’s been involved with the Conservative party for roughly the last 10 years, I have never seen turnouts like we did for Mr. Poilievre’s rallies and people eager to listen to what he had to say, the issues that are important to him, the issues that are important to all Canadians,” said Drover.

He believes Poilievre’s message is one that hits home with Atlantic Canadians because he is promising to help address what Drover called “pocketbook issues” like the rising cost of living — something of crucial importance to the average person.

“If you listen to the messages he’s selling to Atlantic Canadians, it’s a message that resonates with people and I think that’s how he’s differentiating himself from past Conservative leaders or the current Liberal leader in Ottawa,” said Drover.

The Conservative Party has not fared well in the Atlantic region in recent federal elections. Drover said Poilievre genuinely wants to reverse that trend.

“I think the tide is turning against the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau in Atlantic Canada and I know Pierre has been very vocal to me and to many others that Atlantic Canada is of significant importance to him,” said Drover. “He’s going to make sure he’s showing up right across this country, but also right across Atlantic Canada to spread his message and help win seats in the next election.”

In fact, according to Drover, Poilievre is planning to visit Atlantic Canada next month.

“It’s been refreshing to me to have somebody as Conservative leader who I truly believe cares about winning seats in Atlantic Canada and representing Atlantic Canada in Ottawa,” he said. “I’m very optimistic that he’s going to be the change a lot of people are looking for.”

Lori Turnbull is the director of the School of Public Administration and an associate professor of political science at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

She said Poilievre may not be the ideal candidate to be popular in Atlantic Canada as he’s further to the right than even most lifelong Conservatives in the region would prefer.

But, neither was Stephen Harper the most obvious popular choice for Atlantic Canadian Conservatives, yet he managed to hold majority governments and elect Conservative MPS in the region.

Turnball attributed Harper’s success in Atlantic Canada to the presence of a strong MP at the time in Nova Scotia’s Peter Mckay and being astute enough to let the region’s representatives in Parliament run their campaigns in Atlantic Canada.

“The question will be if Poilievre can find an Atlantic Canadian deputy who can take over for places he’s not going to be as popular,” said Turnbull.

Poilievre has appointed three of the four Atlantic Canadian Conservative MPS to his shadow cabinet.

“It seems like he has some understanding that he has to appeal more broadly … He knows he has to grow,” said Turnbull.

The risk in Atlantic Canada, noted the professor, is it is still relatively small and Poilievre might choose to not prioritize it in favour of trying to make enough gains elsewhere in the country to eventually form a government.

Turnbull also doesn’t think Poilievre will have a cozy relationship with Atlantic Canada’s three Conservative provincial governments — in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick.

“I think that it’s possible Poilievre’s kind of politics won’t play well in the area at all,” she said. “It’s possible the premiers won’t want to align with him and he really has a tough time.”

Turnbull doesn’t think the anti-trudeau sentiment that is palpable in other parts of the country is all that strong in Atlantic Canada and may not be something Poilievre will be able to get much leverage from at the polling booth at this point.

Unlike Andrew Scheer and Erin O’toole immediately before him, Poilievre easily won his party’s leadership and that support may galvanize any thoughts he might have of not catering to Atlantic Canada.

“There’s a sense he has the mandate and authority to make the party his own,” said Turnnbull. “If others don’t want to get on board with him, then he doesn’t need to tiptoe around and he might be able to take a more unapologetic tone about that.

“If he decides he has his ideas for the party, that could make it harder for the other parts of the party that just don’t seem to fit into that. I don’t think Atlantic Canada conservatism is Pierre Poilievre conservatism. At least, it’s not an obvious fit. He may not think that’s important.”