King continues to poll well

New numbers find PC support eclipsing 50 per cent and Greens slipping

New polling from Narrative Research shows that P.E.I. Premier Dennis King and his Progressive Conservatives are still riding a wave of popularity as the COVID-19 pandemic enters its 21st month.

A poll of 600 Islanders, conducted Nov. 3-28, shows 80 per cent of Islanders are either completely or mostly satisfied with the performance of the King government.

In addition, of 412 decided voters surveyed, 51 per cent said they would vote PC if an election were held today. This is down slightly from an August poll, which found 48 per cent support for the Tories.

The P.E.I. Greens drew the support of 19 per cent of decided voters, sliding down from a pandemic-peak of 28 per cent in August. The Liberals stood at 21 per cent, up from 17 per cent support in August.

The NDP were the top choice of eight per cent of voters, up from seven per cent in August.

“Right now, what is most important to the public is the pandemic. And if that is something where there's a strong belief that it is being well-managed, then I think that support will continue," Narrative Research CEO Margaret Brigley told The Guardian in an interview on Nov. 30.

"When concerns shift to other factors, other crises, that's when it will be really important to see if that satisfaction level is going to wane or be adjusted."

King also polled strongly as the preferred premier across P.E.I. and was the top choice of 52 per cent of respondents. This was up from 48 per cent in August.

Green Leader Peter BevanBaker was the top choice of 19 per cent, down from 22 per cent in August, while Liberal interim leader Sonny Gallant was the top choice of nine per cent, unchanged from August.

The polling period coincided with a byelection in Cornwall-Meadowbank. PC candidate Mark McLane won, gaining a seat in an area that had maintained a long history as a strong Liberal district.

"I think this is a very difficult time for any political party to be in Opposition in P.E.I. because the PCs are in a very strong position," Brigley said.

The margin of error for the poll overall was plus/minus 4 percentage point, 95 times out of 100. The questions about party preference had a margin of error of 4.8 points.

Narrative Research polling also found high levels of voter satisfaction in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, but King's satisfaction numbers far outpaced the premiers of those provinces.

King has been the only Atlantic

premier to consistently maintain voter satisfaction levels over 80 per cent since the start of the pandemic.

New Brunswick was the notable outlier. Voter satisfaction for the government of Blaine Higgs dropped from 57 per cent in August to 31 per cent this month.

Brigley attributed this drop with ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks as well as the labour unrest over the fall months, which culminated in a 15-day strike of 20,000 public employees.

“There is no question that the public has grown weary of ongoing restrictions and strife. That frustration is directly reflected in the lowest level of government satisfaction recorded in more than two decades,” Brigley said, in reference to New Brunswick.

The Green party in New Brunswick, led by David Coon, also saw a significant decline in public support amongst decided voters between August and November, sliding from 22 per cent to 14 per cent.

P.E.I. and New Brunswick are the only provinces in which the Greens currently hold elected seats.

The Progressive Conservatives under Higgs also saw a more modest decline, from 33 per cent to 28 per cent during the same time period.