U.S. retail sales restrained

Shortages, inflation take toll

WASHINGTON — U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in November, likely payback after surging in the prior month as Americans started their holiday shopping early to avoid empty shelves.

A rotation in spending from goods back to services also appears to have held back retail sales last month, with the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showing a sharp drop in receipts at electronics and appliance stores. Online retail sales were unchanged. Higher food and gasoline prices are probably curtailing discretionary spending.

The modest retail sales gain did not change views that the economy was regaining steam after a slowdown in the third quarter that was triggered by the COVID-19 Delta variant and rampant shortages.

“Consumers are still doing their best to keep the economy’s sails full and the recovery on track,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York.

“Fed officials will not see today’s retail sales report as a softening in demand.”

Retail sales rose 0.3 per cent last month after surging 1.8 per cent in October. Sales have risen for four straight months. They increased 18.2 per cent year-on-year in November. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales rising 0.8 per cent. Estimates ranged from as low as being unchanged to as high as a 1.5 per cent increase.

Several of the top U.S. retailers reported in mid-november that they had noticed an earlier start to holiday shopping.

Trillions of dollars in COVID-19 pandemic relief from governments across the globe fueled demand for goods, straining supply chains. The resulting shortages, ranging from motor vehicles to furniture and electronics, have raised goods prices.

Consumer prices increased a solid 0.8 per cent in November, with the year-on-year gain of 6.8 per cent the largest since June 1982. Inflation is likely to remain high for a while. A separate report from the U.S. Labor Department on Wednesday showed import prices increased 0.7 per cent in November.

“Consumers have been bombarded with messages about the impact of supply shortages on the availability of holiday gifts,” said David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio.

“They may well have done a lot of their holiday shopping earlier than usual.”

MIXED BAG

The moderation in retail sales, which are mostly goods, was in part due to shortages and higher prices. Receipts at auto dealerships dipped 0.1 per cent after accelerating 1.7 per cent in October. Automobiles remain scarce because of a global semiconductor shortage. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 4.6 per cent.

But sales at service stations increased 1.7 per cent, lifted by higher gasoline prices. Receipts at food and beverage stores rose 1.3 per cent, also reflecting rising inflation.

“Food and gas are forcing hard choices for consumers in other areas this holiday season,” said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C.

There were also increases in sales at building material stores as well as at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores. Sales at clothing stores rose 0.5 per cent.

Receipts at restaurants and bars increased 1.0 per cent. Restaurants and bars are the only services category in the retail sales report. These sales were up 37.4 per cent from last November, suggesting spending was reverting back to services. Demand shifted to goods during the pandemic.

“Details from the report reflect a wallet share shift towards services that is encouraging for the services component of the personal spending report next week,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

“We expect that as the economy recovers, services spending will regain share while the share of goods spending declines.”

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales dipped 0.1 per cent. Data for October was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales accelerating 1.8 per cent instead of the previously reported 1.6 per cent.

Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Though inflation-adjusted, or real, consumer spending was probably flat in November, it is above its third-quarter pace. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 1.7 per cent annualized rate in the third quarter.

“We still think that real consumer spending growth will be strong in the fourth quarter on average, with firm earlier momentum before the disappointing November,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at Jpmorgan in New York.

Economic growth estimates are as high as an 8.7 per cent rate. The economy grew at a 2.1 per cent pace in the third quarter. Growth estimates for this quarter were boosted by a third report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showing businesses inventories accelerated 1.2 per cent in October.