Reopening in the fog a risky affair

Is it possible to have an abundance of caution without creating an abundance of confusion in the post-third-wave reopening in Nova Scotia?

It’s a worthwhile question as we head into the summer and tourism season.

The “maybe two weeks, maybe three weeks, maybe four weeks” routine between each phase of the Big Restriction Lift introduces confusion in the name of caution.

I think I speak for just about all businesses when I say I understand the need for caution with the opening-up process. I also understand that things can change, and change fast. Remember April? Yeah. But business criticisms of this restriction lift are valid and should be heard by the government.

When the plan was first announced three weeks ago, I found it vague and confusing. The absence of dates is frustrating if you are running a business and trying to ramp up for the season. It is also confusing for people who might be considering a visit.

If I were a tourist wishing to visit Atlantic Canada this summer, I’d be booking in New Brunswick or P.E.I., which have affixed dates to their reopening calendar.

And the lack of co-ordination with other Atlantic provinces is also a problem, especially now that we have knocked back our COVID numbers.

Premier Iain Rankin and Dr. Robert Strang are so far standing firm on their “data, not-dates” approach, even under considerable pressure from business.

I don’t know why it has to be either data or dates. It is possible to have both as benchmarks for the lifting of restrictions.

If they went ahead and attached firm dates to each of the phases, based on, say, the two-week buffer, businesses and visitors would have something concrete to hold onto.

It would be like tossing a life preserver to businesses and visitors. The way things are right now, the buoy is there, but it is floating around in the water just beyond the reach of entrepreneurs and potential tourists.

I expect this vague approach is being used in the name of caution and to manage expectations. The premier and public health officials want the freedom to take more time with the opening up without looking like they are changing their minds.

Fair enough, but at this point in the pandemic, we are all too painfully aware of the uncertainty caused by the virus. We understand the consequences of failing to heed upticks in numbers.

So if there were a spike in numbers, they could simply push back the dates. This has been done before and most people would understand.

That said, this pandemic is not over, even with vaccination rates climbing. Epidemiologists and public health officials are watching the Delta variant and other hybrids percolating around the world. There are now more than a thousand of these variants.

The Delta variant is more contagious and virulent than previous ones. It now represents 90 per cent of COVID cases in the U.K., where the numbers of infections are rising. The Delta variant is also present in Ontario, and models have suggested the case counts will be increasing.

Studies have shown that someone with only one dose of vaccine has only 30 per cent protection against the Delta strain.

So far, studies are indicating that fully vaccinated people are protected against the Delta. But the worry is that new strains will adapt to antibodies formed through infection or vaccination. If this happens, present vaccination formulations will no longer be enough to protect us.

In this scenario, present tests will not be able to detect new variants.

In other words, we are going to have to learn to live with the virus, even with vaccinations. Restrictions are a tool, but there are also creative ways to manage the virus and restrictions without leaving businesses in the dark.

In a province like Nova Scotia, tourism is a huge generator of tax revenue, which the government uses to pay for things like health care and education.

Working closely with businesses in the COVID response and recovery is imperative.