Russia’s still not coming for Canada in the Arctic

It’s time for clear thinking on our nation’s defence priorities

As Russian artillery levels Ukrainian cities and upends the Western World’s post-cold War sense of security, Canadians have understandably refocused on an old security concern.

Sitting across the Arctic Ocean from our northern territories is the Russian Federation, its Arctic now brimming with new and refurbished airbases and missile sites, and its government clearly intent on conquering new territory. On the face of things, this seems to pose a serious threat to Canada. Defence Minister Anita Anand called attention to the issue with a recent Arctic tour, while Conservative MP Bob Zimmer declared that “Canadians’ safety is at risk if we do not step up to the plate and adequately defend (the North).”

Six years ago, I penned an article with my colleague, Whitney Lackenbauer, entitled: “Canadian Arctic Security: Russia’s Not Coming,” which pushed back against such persistent and ill-founded fears of the Russian threat to the Canadian North, or of a Russian challenge to Canadian sovereignty. Circumstances have changed dramatically, however the strategic dynamics surrounding the Canadian Arctic have not.

Russia’s still not coming. This assessment stems not from any trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin, or any naïve view that the Arctic is somehow detached from global geopolitics, but rather a cleareyed strategic assessment of the costs and benefits of Arctic operations. Militarily, the Canadian Arctic has nothing to tempt a Russian attack, being neither an economic nor strategic centre of gravity. Considering a Soviet invasion in the 1950s, Lester Pearson quipped, there was “nothing to conquer … and nowhere to go.” In 70 years, that has not changed much.

The past 20 years of Canadian deployments into the Arctic have shown the extreme difficulties of operating even small groups of light infantry in the Canadian North, even when supported by our own communities and secure lines of supply. Logistically, it has proven more challenging than maintaining soldiers on the other side of the world in Afghanistan. Over the past month, the Russian Army has put on display the poor quality of its own logistics, with attacks grinding to a halt for lack of fuel and food only a hundred kilometres from Russian railheads. Projecting force into Canadian territory would be strategically self-defeating; supply and transportation difficulties would be horrendous and maintaining forces nearly impossible. Of course, the question arises, to what purpose? This seems a steep price to pay to occupy small Inuit communities, or to secure radar stations that could be more easily disabled by missiles.

NORAD’S ROLE

This is not to say that there is no military dimension to the Canadian Arctic. The region has long been an avenue through which the Soviets — and now Russians — may project power. Ballistic and cruise missiles and submarines could use the Arctic as a transit route to hit critical infrastructure further south. Given this threat, new investments should be made to upgrade NORAD’S aerospace and maritime detection capabilities, and the government is looking at those options now.

Canada has only so many resources to spend on defence and they must be deployed with a clear understanding of where threats lie and where conflict is likely to emerge. Our justified concern over the long-term threat posed by Russia (and China) should lead to new investments in the Navy to guard the Atlantic sea lines of communication, and in the Air Force to deploy overseas in defence of our allies.

Calls for permanent ground forces, armed icebreakers or more combat capability in the Canadian Arctic miss the mark. For 20 years the Canadian military has assessed the defence threat to the North as minimal, requiring a constabulary presence to respond to safety and security situations, not Russian paratroopers. This remains a valid assessment.

If anything, the attack on Ukraine makes it even more important that the military’s resources are deployed effectively. Ground forces and combat ships for the Arctic would be wasting assets.

Unfortunately for Canada and the world, we now see that the Russians are coming, just not for our Arctic.